European Manufacturing PMI Still Poor

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Alan Penny

2 January 2020

2 min read

Euro flat

  • Spanish Manufacturing PMI weak
  • Italian Manufacturing PMI soft
  • French PMI weak
  • German Final Manufacturing PMI still low
  • EU Final Manufacturing PMI better but still contractionary

Early on Thursday, the European Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (European Manufacturing PMI) was released for several countries, including the European Union itself. While some of the numbers were better than anticipated, they were all rather soft. This shows that manufacturing in the European Union still struggles, and is lagging behind the United States and Asia.

The announcements

Multiple countries in the European Union continue to disappoint when it comes to forward-looking figures. The Spanish released their number at 47.4, which is better than 46.9 as expected, but still contractionary. The Italians released their Manufacturing PMI figure at 46.2, lower than the anticipated 46.3 number.

The French released Final Manufacturing PMI figures of 50.4, which is better than the expected 50.3 release but still does not impress. Beyond that, the German Final Manufacturing PMI figures came in at 43.7 for the month. It was expected to be 43.4. While this is better than anticipated, it is still far below the 50 reading that is needed to show growth.

EU Final Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.3, which was better than the anticipated 45.9, but still far from growth. […] Ultimately, this shows just how soft manufacturing in Europe is.

EU Final Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.3, which was better than the anticipated 45.9, but still far from growth. This makes sense because there are so many disappointing numbers across the continent. Ultimately, this shows just how soft manufacturing in Europe is.

Poor outlook for manufacturing

Although the European Union is performing slightly better than anticipated, the outlook for manufacturing is rather poor for the EU. It shows just how far behind Asia and the United States the Europeans are.

This will be interesting to pay attention to because the EU is trying to negotiate a trade deal with the British, and European economic numbers haven’t exactly put it on solid footing.

Beyond that, there may be slower global growth than people are willing to bet on considering that Germany is a major export economy. This will probably continue to facilitate a lower-valued Euro, and perhaps lower stock markets in places like Germany, Spain, and Italy.

The European situation continues to cause major issues for traders. It seems unlikely that the market will continue to punish Europe itself. Although the United States seems to be slowing down a bit, it still is going to outperform the EU in the near future. Pay attention to these numbers because if they jump above 50 overall, it would be a good sign for the European economy. In the short run though, it looks like the continent is still struggling, and that will be reflected in pricing.

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Written By
Alan Penny

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