House to Proceed With Articles of Impeachment, and Why it Doesn’t Matter

Alan Penny

5 December 2019

3 min read

flags of China and US

  • House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi announces that house will move ahead with articles of impeachment
  • Commonly thought that is a political move ahead of 2020 elections
  • Negative reactions can be seen as a potential buying opportunity for risk assets

Early on Thursday morning in the United States, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that the house was to proceed with articles of impeachment against Pres. Donald Trump, in what would have been one of the most telegraphed moves in Washington DC. After all, the House of Representatives has been holding hearings as of late to decide what to do next with the President.

At this point, the articles of impeachment don’t seem to be anything more than politics, as it is already a known result ahead

That being said, it’s been a bit of a moving target. This has been going on since the election and is the culmination of three years of investigations that haven’t exactly produced the bombshell that people have looked for. At this point, the articles of impeachment don’t seem to be anything more than politics, as it is already a known result ahead.

Political calculation

The Democrats in the United States have made a political calculation that if they were to impeach the president, it could help in the 2020 election. The reality is that when the process begins, the House of Representatives will vote for it. The House of Representatives in the United States is running by the Democrats who are the majority. The next step and the one that truly matters is the actual trial in the Senate.

The Senate is heavily Republican and has already made its intentions known. Sen. Lindsey Graham has already stated that impeachment was “dead on arrival” unless the Democrats “actually come up with something.” Because of this, one would anticipate that Donald Trump will be impeached, but it will end up much like the Bill Clinton impeachment, it will simply die in the Senate. This is why it doesn’t matter, but there are more reasons to think that’s the case.

As a PR stunt, this has failed

The viewer ratings for the impeachment hearings have done nothing but plummet since they started. Very few people outside of New York or Washington DC are paying attention to this situation, as can be seen in the polls. Recently, his approval numbers have been somewhere in the neighborhood of 45% on the aggregate, and as high as 52%. As US presidents go, this is typically pretty solid. It looks as if the PR stunt of impeachment has done nothing but solidify the Democratic base, which quite frankly didn’t need to be solidified any further.

The end results

Traders should be looking at the markets and any negative reaction as a potential buying opportunity for risk assets. After all, the Senate is not going to actually convict Donald Trump, and therefore this will end up being yet again more noise.

There is a very high likelihood that Donald Trump will not only avoid impeachment, but there’s an even higher chance that he will be re-elected as there is simply nobody on the other side currently that is attracting enough attention to take him out.

All one has to do is look at the Trump rallies and the size of them, which are still just as big as they were during the campaign, to see what’s about to happen. Any negative reaction to this news should be thought of as a buying opportunity.

Written By
Alan Penny

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