- Liz Ann Sonders
- Erik Fossing Nielsen
- Knowledge Leaders
- JJ Kinahan
- Sven Henrich
- Chris Ciovacco
- Dana Lyons
- Holger Zschaepitz
If half predict a strong and quick recovery and the other half predict doom and gloom we may just end up in an extended period of massive chop, uncertainty and wide price ranges.
Just to put things into perspective: DB expects biggest economic contraction for #Italy's 2020 GDP since 1862 in peacetime.
via @MarketWatch "Median bear market since the mid-19th century has taken 17 months to find a bottom." "None has made the trip in fewer than three months" The recent low was made after 23 trading days.
Stocks vs. Bonds on track to print the lowest monthly CCI close in $SPY and $AGG's history. Only similar reading came at the end of November 2008. S&P 500 dropped an additional 24.51% before March 2009 major low. 2020 case TBD.
Maybe, just maybe, we should’ve had an infrastructure bill instead of a tax cut that went up in buyback smoke.
It's an election year. Free money for everybody.
The US budget.
Why stop at a $3 trillion deficit when you can go for $5 trillion.
March @Conferenceboard Consumer Confidence fell to 120 vs. 110 est. & 132.6 in prior month (revised up from 130.7); expectations fell to 88.2 vs. 108.1 prior & present situation ticked up to 167.7 vs. 169.3 prior
ECB Balance sheet topped €5tn for 1st time amid aggressive efforts to support banks through long-term loans & Swap Arrangements. Total assets rose by €135.4bn as banks took €100bn in TLTROs & use swap arrangements w/volume of €15bn. Balance sheet now equal to 42.5% of EZ GDP.
"we all got furloughed but are super confident".
So you know: The Fed has already increased its asset base by $1.3 trillion since the same time last year. And they're just getting started.
March Chicago PMI fell to 47.8 vs. 40 est. & 49 in February; increase in prices paid & supplier deliveries; but new orders, employment, inventories, production & backlogs all fell
Party like it's 1920 Party like it's 2020
The German DAX recently printed a weekly RSI close of 20.27. Only two other instances dating back to 1990. Both cases occurred in bear markets and the S&P 500 dropped an average of 26.83% before making the final low; average calendar days to S&P 500 low was 270.
Crude getting a boost this morning, but caution seems to be the word of the day as volatility continues edging higher.
Odds are they'll be either wrong about the frontend or the backend or both. If they're right about both I'll be impressed and give them credit. $GS