波浪结构中的平台形

平台形属于调整结构,以字母 a-b-c 标示。该形态中前两浪为调整浪,所以是三浪结构。c 浪始终为推进浪。因此,标准平台形结构为 3–3–5 模式。a 浪和 b 浪可能是简单型调整浪或复合型调整浪,而 c 浪为五浪结构,带第 1、3 或 5 浪延伸浪。但平台形解读的关键在于 b 浪。根据 b 浪回撤到前面 a 浪区域的点位,平台形可以分为许多类型。具体分为三大类,每大类包含两种以上平台形。

b 浪 始终是关键。

从外汇交易学院的往期文章可知,平台形中 b 浪回撤始终超过前面 a 浪的 61.8%。为准确找出回撤位,须使用斐波那契回撤工具将其从 a 浪的起点拖到终点。此外,还须考虑其他点位,也可将它们添加到斐波那契工具中。添加点位时,须选中斐波那契工具,然后在“点位”选项卡下添加想要的值。我们对添加 80% 和 123.6% 回撤感兴趣。其他斐波那契点位对平台形而言也比较重要,请参阅专门阐述斐波那契回撤工具的文章。

疲软 b 浪平台形

flats1

这类平台形的 b 浪疲软,无法回撤到前面 a 浪的 80% 以上。由于 b 浪规模相对较小,b 浪回撤疲软。b 浪疲软的平台形可根据后续 c 浪长度进一步划分。这种情况下,c 浪或平台形中唯一一个推进浪可能有三种长度:

  • 第一种可能是 c 浪未达到前面 a 浪的最低点,所以比 b 浪规模小。这种形态非常强大,显示出朝平台形反方向波动的趋势,形成极为激进的波浪。
  • 第二种可能是 c 浪达到前面 a 浪的最低点,但与 a 浪长度相比波动没有超过 123.6%。因此,交易者应测量 a 浪长度,找到 123.6% 延伸浪,再从 b 浪终点投射,将有根据地推导出这类平台形的 c 浪终止位置。
  • 最后一种也不容忽视,如果 c 浪属于非常强势的推进浪,波动大大超过 123.6% 点位(最好超过 161.8%),则整个 a–b–c 形态将被拉长。它的重要性在于标志着可能发生更大程度的大盘整。

普通 b 浪平台形

flats21

该大类包含一些 b 浪适度强劲的平台形,其几乎完全回撤到前面的 a 浪。请务必只将 b 浪终点视为回撤位解读位置,而非该形态最低点中的最高位。如果 b 浪回撤 80% 至 100%,根据 c 浪长度的相同解读,也可能有三种平台形类型:

  • c 浪波动未超过前面 a 浪的终点。这时形成非常强劲的平台形,一般在平台的相反方向剧烈波动。即,如果平台形为看跌趋势,将开始更高的剧烈波动。
  • c 浪终点超过前面 a 浪的终点,但最多到 123.6%。适中平台形属于该子类,它们是复合型调整浪或单个简单型调整浪的一部分,例如推进浪中的第 2、4 浪或锯齿形中的 b 浪,或更大规模的平台形。
  • c 浪终点超过 138.2%。至今为止,这是 c 浪最激进的一种情况,也需要更大程度的价格波幅或盘整。

b 浪强劲平台形

flats3

因为多头和空头均停止,使其成为最让人困惑的平台形类型。假设发生如下情况:在此形态中,b 浪完全回撤 a 浪,只有 c 浪跟随并完全回撤 b 浪。此时,初始空头停止,因为他们在 a 浪起始位置设置了止损,而买进 b 浪的多头被随后的 c 浪停止。和前面两大类一样,根据 c 浪长度可以将平台形分成以下几种:

  • c 浪未完全回撤 b 浪。只有在 b 浪足够强劲至超过上文所述的 123.6% 点位时,才有可能发生这种情况。b 浪越强劲,a 浪和 c 浪越相似。
  • c 浪终点超过前面 a 浪的终点,但不超过 123.6%。这种平台形极为罕见,但许多外汇交易者都会纳入考虑。
  • c 浪超过 a 浪终点 138.2% 以上,和前面几大类一样,它标志着更大程度的盘整。

了解市场正在形成哪种平台形类型是全面解读艾略特波浪理论的关键。有些情况下,除非包含某种平台形,否则不可能形成具体形态。因此,人们可以对该形态交易有一些信心。在平台形、锯齿形和三角形这三种调整浪类型当中,平台形次数最多,也最复杂。下一篇文章将专门阐述现有的锯齿形类型,及如何根据 b 浪回撤位和后续 c 浪长度来解读。

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