Handful of US Numbers Show Mixed Economy

Alan Penny

21 November 2019

2 min read

dollar notes under US flag

  • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • Unemployment Claims
  • CB Leading Index
  • Existing Home Sales

During the US trading session on Thursday, we had a slew of economic numbers emerging, some of which will be more important than others. But the common theme is that there is a lot of uneven growth and economic activity in the United States.

the reality is that the market is dealing with a very bifurcated growth situation in America, which makes investing in trading more difficult

While overall the US has been more robust and stringent in growth than the rest of the world, the reality is that the market is dealing with a very bifurcated growth situation in America, which makes investing in trading more difficult. In this environment, traders will have to become much more flexible in their approach.

The economic announcements

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came in at -22,600 for the week, and although this private measurement of employment is a bit erratic, it gives traders an idea as to how the job situation may be shaping up in the United States. It’s best thought of as a barometer, not necessarily something to trade directly from. Employment looks to be slipping a bit.

Looking further at the employment situation, Unemployment Claims came in at 227,000 for the week, higher than the anticipated 215,000. This is a negative turn of events, and it should be noted that the previous weekly Unemployment Claims figure was revised upward from 225,000 to 227,000.

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index came out at 10.4. This was far better than the anticipated 7.0. This flies in the face of a weakening job market and suggests that more manufacturing is going on in that region of the United States, which is a positive sign.

The Consumer Board Leading Index month over month figure came out at -0.1%, as expected. However, the previous monthly number was reported in a downward revision to the -0.2% as opposed to the previously reported 0.1%.

Finally, Existing Home Sales came in at 5.46 million, as opposed to the expected 5.49 million. This is a major barometer of how the US economy is functioning, and although it’s a slight miss, it is something worth paying attention to as the first signs of recession normally show up in the housing market.

Mixed bag of US numbers

Looking at the data for the trading session on Thursday, there are varied results when it comes to the United States. However, the interconnectivity of the global markets these days suggests that the United States is still exhibiting positive signs. The numbers that the US are releasing are far better than most other economies around the world. That being said, traders are advised to monitor some of these figures as a “heads up” for what’s happening next in the global economy. If the United States starts to fall apart, that will likely be far too much weight upon what is already a fragile global economy.

Written By
Alan Penny

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