Tory Election Lead Diminishing in the UK
- Conservatives lead has dropped from 14 points to 12 points
- The Pound has weakened on the back of UK election polls
- The US will publish the second estimate of Q3 GDP and October Durable Goods Orders
The latest news from the UK shows that the Conservatives’ lead is decreasing. The lead has dropped from 14 points to 12 points this week. Moreover, the Pound has weakened on the back of UK election polls.
Early election to guide direction of GBP
The UK has published the October BBA Mortgage Approvals which fell to 41.219K from 42.216K. The situation around Brexit has a big influence on the UK and GBP, and the early election should be the main driver in the coming days.
Latest US data also fails to impress
On the other side of the Atlantic, the latest US data is also disappointing, with the CB Consumer Confidence Index falling to 125.5 in November. The October number was upwardly revised to 126.1.
This week, the US will publish the second estimate of Q3 GDP and October Durable Goods Orders, which are expected to be in line with expectations. The US will also release Pending Home Sales and Personal Income, but these figures will not have a big influence on the financial markets.
While trade tensions between US and China are still bringing about market uncertainty, US officials report that good progress has been made. In fact, US President Trump said this Tuesday that the US is in the “final throes” of reaching a trade deal with China.
Background noise and conclusion
Polls about the election in the UK are probably going to be the major driver for the GBP in the coming days. It is also important to mention that Boris Johnson promised Brexit before Christmas if the Tories win the election. A Tories victory is looking likely, and will offer an alternative scenario to a Labour Party election victory which would send the Pound lower.
In the US, trade tensions between the US and China is still generating market uncertainty despite good progress having been made. In the case of economic news, the focus is on US October Durable Goods Orders and the second estimate of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product this Wednesday.