British Economic Figures Show Continued Struggles

Alan Penny

10 December 2019

3 min read

UK flag and map

  • GDP M/M misses
  • Manufacturing Production M/M better than anticipated
  • Goods Trade Balance misses
  • Index of Services 3M/3M misses
  • Industrial Reduction M/M misses

Early during the trading session on Tuesday, we have seen a handful of British economic figures come out at 9:30 AM GMT. The outcome of these suggests that perhaps the British economy has a lot to overcome, as it has been looking at the specter of Brexit for some time. It looks as if a lot of uncertainty has crept into the British economy, as well as perhaps a bit of the global slowdown showing up in the United Kingdom.

although these numbers don’t look necessarily great for the United Kingdom, it must be kept in the spectrum of the planet, not just the national borders

Keep in mind that the numbers out of the United Kingdom are worse than expected, which can come down to more of a confidence thing rather than any type of hard economic issues. Beyond that, there are always external factors when it comes to an economy, namely the global trade situation. It has been slowing down so although these numbers don’t look necessarily great for the United Kingdom, it must be kept in the spectrum of the planet, not just the national borders.

The British figures

The GDP month over month figure came out at 0.0%, much less than the 0.1% expected. While it is not necessarily a complete collapse, the fact that it missed is not necessarily a good sign either. The Manufacturing Production month over month figure came out at 0.2%, better than the anticipated 0.1% for the announcement.

Goods Trade Balance came out at -14.5 billion British pounds, much worse than the anticipated -11.5 billion British pounds. Ultimately, this could also be a reflection of the global trade situation, as the trade war between the Americans and the Chinese has long-reaching effects, well beyond just those two countries.

This number has to be looked at as perhaps an issue with other parts of the world, more than likely pointing it’s finger directly at the European Union, as it is the largest trading partner of the United Kingdom.

The Index of Services 3M/3M number came out at 0.2%, which is less than the initially sought after 0.3% for the announcement. Perhaps more importantly, the Industrial Reduction month over month figures came out at 0.1%, less than the anticipated 0.2%. This suggests that perhaps there is less in the way of economic activity in the United Kingdom, and perhaps even around the world.

The main take away

Looking at all of the economic figures, it’s obvious that there is a bit of a slowdown in the United Kingdom, but this occurring around the world so it’s not a huge surprise. Because of this, the market is likely to shrug some of these numbers off, as the main focus for traders around the world could continue to focus solely on Brexit more than anything else. This is unlikely to be a scenario where traders will be afraid of the United Kingdom, and in fact, it’s likely only a matter of time before a lot of value hunters start coming back into the UK, as soon as there is some certainty when it comes to leaving the EU.

Written By
Alan Penny

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